{"id":6362,"date":"2023-01-16T01:23:38","date_gmt":"2023-01-16T01:23:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.primavera-capital.com\/?post_type=thought-leadership&#038;p=6362"},"modified":"2023-01-16T01:29:15","modified_gmt":"2023-01-16T01:29:15","slug":"%e5%90%8e%e7%96%ab%e6%83%85%e6%97%b6%e4%bb%a3%e7%9a%84%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e4%b8%8e%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%b1%95%e6%9c%9b","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.primavera-capital.com\/zh-hans\/thought-leadership\/%e5%90%8e%e7%96%ab%e6%83%85%e6%97%b6%e4%bb%a3%e7%9a%84%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e4%b8%8e%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%b1%95%e6%9c%9b\/","title":{"rendered":"\u540e\u75ab\u60c5\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c55\u671b"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"grid-container section-wrapper full\" data-layout=\"text\" data-category=\"block\" data-doc-type-alias=\"standard\" >\n\t<div class=\"grid-container \">\n\t\t<div class=\"grid-x grid-padding-x \">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"cell \">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"text standard anim-reveal anim-triggered-movefade\">\n\t<div class=\"grid-x grid-padding-x anim-me\">\n\t\t<div class=\"cell small-24 medium-16 medium-offset-4 large-12 large-offset-6\">\n\t\t\t   \t \t\t<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"AGD2022: Taking Stock: Assessing the Direction of the Global Economy\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/1aaPAJ27-lk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>2022\u5e7411\u670816\u65e5\uff0c2022\u5e74\u5ea6\u201c\u4e9a\u6d32-\u5168\u7403\u5bf9\u8bdd\u201d\uff08AsiaGlobal Dialogue 2022\uff09\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b66\u53ec\u5f00\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u5b66\u8005\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u9ad8\u7ea7\u5b98\u5458\u7b49\u5171\u805a\uff0c\u56f4\u7ed5\u201c\u590d\u82cf\u4e0e\u6539\u9769\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\u7684\u4e9a\u6d32\u201d\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u6d41\u4e0e\u5206\u4eab\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u9898\u4e3a\u201c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65b9\u5411\u8bc4\u4f30\u5206\u6790\u201d\u7684\u5706\u684c\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u6625\u534e\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u80e1\u7956\u516d\u535a\u58eb\u4e0e\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3bMichael Spence\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u8bc1\u76d1\u4f1a\u884c\u653f\u603b\u88c1\u6881\u51e4\u4eea\uff08Julia Leung\uff09\u3001TJL\u987e\u95ee\u6709\u9650\u516c\u53f8\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u53caCEO Terry 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Tang\uff09\u4e3b\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u3001\u4fc4\u4e4c\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u901a\u80c0\u5347\u6e29\u3001\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4e2d\u65ad\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u5371\u673a\u53ca\u98df\u54c1\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\u52a0\u5267\u7b49\u591a\u91cd\u6311\u6218\u51e0\u4e4e\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u5411\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u88ad\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u8086\u8650\u53ca\u56fd\u9645\u5c40\u52bf\u52a8\u8361\u7684\u5927\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u901a\u80c0\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u5bfc\u81f4\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u8d27\u5e01\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u8fc5\u901f\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u4e5f\u5728\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u5916\u6d41\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u6761\u4ef6\u5df2\u7136\u4eca\u975e\u6614\u6bd4\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9aa4\u7136\u8fdb\u5165\u4f9b\u5e94\u53d7\u9650\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u8fc7\u53bb\u9669\u963b\u91cd\u91cd\uff0c\u5404\u4f4d\u5609\u5bbe\u90fd\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5145\u6ee1\u5e0c\u671b\uff0c\u5e76\u575a\u4fe1\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u540e\u75ab\u60c5\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u80e1\u7956\u516d\u5728\u8c08\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u53d1\u5c55\u6301\u4e50\u89c2\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5224\u65ad\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e24\u4e2a\u524d\u63d0\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u53d8\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u662f\u4e8c\u5341\u5927\u80dc\u5229\u53ec\u5f00\u540e\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u96c6\u4e2d\u7cbe\u529b\u63a8\u8fdb\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u80e1\u7956\u516d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u5728\u521d\u671f\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u663e\u8457\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5927\u5927\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u968f\u7740\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u6210\u672c\u6108\u53d1\u9ad8\u6602\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5730\u65b9\u8d22\u529b\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u4f9d\u7136\u770b\u597d\u540e\u75ab\u60c5\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u3002\u968f\u7740\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u53d1\u6325\u51fa\u5f3a\u52bf\u53cd\u5f39\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u662f\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u968f\u7740\u4e8c\u5341\u5927\u7684\u80dc\u5229\u53ec\u5f00\uff0c\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u663e\u7136\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u53d1\u529b\u3002\u201d\u80e1\u7956\u516d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7740\u529b\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u9f13\u52b1\u521b\u4e1a\u521b\u65b0\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u79d1\u6280\u884c\u4e1a\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u53d7\u5230\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5e74\u76d1\u7ba1\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u521b\u65b0\u4f9d\u7136\u5728\u5feb\u901f\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u79d1\u6280\u4eba\u624d\u50a8\u5907\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u8d44\u672c\u4e0e\u8bc1\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u79d1\u6280\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u90fd\u4f9d\u7136\u5177\u5907\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u4e5f\u8bb8\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u661f\u7403\u4e0a\u6700\u6709\u6d3b\u529b\u3001\u6700\u6709\u5f39\u6027\u3001\u6700\u5177\u521b\u65b0\u7cbe\u795e\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6(\u7fa4\u4f53)\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u9700\u8981\u505a\u7684\u53ea\u662f\u4e3a\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\u521b\u9020\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u201d\u80e1\u7956\u516d\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u80e1\u7956\u516d\u8fd8\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7279\u522b\u662f\u94f6\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u4f1a\u771f\u6b63\u53d7\u5230\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u975e\u5e38\u96c4\u539a\u7684\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u6709\u826f\u597d\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d28\u91cf\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6bd4\u5916\u754c\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u8981\u5c0f\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u5766\u8a00\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u8fdb\u884c\u6c9f\u901a\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u660e\u667a\u548c\u5f00\u660e\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\uff0c\u201c\uff08\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u6c9f\u901a\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u6311\u6218\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u5316\u5c1a\u672a\u6d88\u4ea1<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8c08\u5230\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u65f6\uff0c\u6881\u51e4\u4eea\u6307\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u5316\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6d88\u4ea1\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u9488\u5bf9\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u505a\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u548c\u5e94\u6025\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u800c\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u7684\u597d\u5904\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u4e4b\u5927\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u96be\u4ee5\u88ab\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5ffd\u89c6\u3002\u5f53\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u4eab\u4e2d\u56fd\u589e\u957f\u7684\u7ea2\u5229\u65f6\uff0c\u8131\u94a9\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4ef6\u75db\u82e6\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u80e1\u7956\u516d\u5219\u4ee5\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u4e0a\u6d77\u5de5\u5382\u4e3a\u4f8b\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u8c08\u8bba\u8131\u94a9\u6216\u8005\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u591a\u6837\u5316\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u5176\u4e2d\u6240\u9700\u8981\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u6210\u672c\u3002\u7531\u653f\u6cbb\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u591a\u6837\u5316\u5c06\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u6548\u7387\u7684\u53cc\u8f93\u7ed3\u5c40\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Terry 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